Comparison of the prognostic value of liver biopsy and FIB-4 index in patients coinfected with HIV and hepatitis C virus.

BACKGROUND We compared the prognostic value of liver biopsy (LB) and FIB-4 index in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection. METHODS We studied patients from the Grupo de Estudio del SIDA 3603 study cohort, in whom fibrosis was evaluated at baseline using both LB (Metavir score) and FIB-4 index. We assessed overall death (OD) and liver-related events (LREs), defined as decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma, whichever occurred first. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine the ability of LB and FIB-4 to predict outcomes. We also assessed the association between advanced fibrosis-LB (F3 or greater) or FIB-4 (≥3.25)-and outcomes using multivariate Cox regression analysis. RESULTS The study sample comprised 903 patients (328 with sustained virologic response [SVR]). Baseline fibrosis by LB was as follows: F0, n = 71; F1, n = 242; F2, n = 236; F3, n = 236; F4, n = 118. Fibrosis by FIB-4 was as follows: ≤1, n = 148; >1 to <3.25, n = 597; ≥3.25, n = 158. After a median follow-up of 62 months, there were 46 deaths and 71 LREs. The area under the ROC curves for OD/LREs was 0.648 and 0.742 for LB and FIB-4, respectively (P = .006). Similar results were found for patients without SVR and for OD and LREs separately. The adjusted hazard ratios of OD or LRE were 1.740 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.119-2.7.06; P = .014) for advanced fibrosis assessed by LB and 3.896 (95% CI, 2.463-6.160; P < .001) assessed by FIB-4. CONCLUSIONS FIB-4 outperformed LB as a predictor of OD and LRE. These findings are of relevance for clinical practice and research and call into question the role of LB as a gold standard for assessing prognosis in HIV/HCV coinfection.